According to an analysis of several estimates, former President Donald Trump's proposed tax reform could potentially grant total or partial income tax exemptions to approximately 93.2 million Americans, a significant portion of the U.S. electorate. Trump, as part of his economic strategy aimed at voters, has suggested a comprehensive tax overhaul that includes a range of income tax reliefs.

As the Republican presidential nominee, Trump has officially proposed the elimination of income tax on tips, Social Security benefits, and overtime pay. Furthermore, in an interview with the sports media platform OutKick, he indicated that he would consider tax exemptions for firefighters, police officers, military personnel, and veterans. These exemptions are integral to Trump's broader vision of moving away from the income tax system and replacing it with revenue generated by his proposed stringent tariff plans.

"In the past, when we were more astute, during the 1890s and so on, this was a time when the country was relatively the wealthiest it had ever been. It had tariffs in place. It did not have an income tax," Trump remarked during a meeting with New York voters on "Fox & Friends." "Now we have income taxes, and we have people who are struggling."

Trump has vowed to implement a 20% universal tariff on all imports from every country, with a specific 60% rate for Chinese imports. However, tax experts have dismissed the idea that tariff revenue could compensate for the losses from abolishing income taxes. "The calculations simply do not add up," stated Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.

Watson explained that Trump's tariffs would likely raise about $3.8 trillion over the next decade, which is significantly less than the roughly $33 trillion of projected revenue from income taxes during the same period. Since tariffs are paid by U.S. importers and these costs have historically been passed on to consumers, Trump's strategy seems to revolve around the concept of substituting income tax revenue with an invisible sales tax.

Tariffs, similar to sales tax and other costs at the point of sale, tend to disproportionately affect low-income consumers, for whom these amounts represent a larger share of their monthly budgets. If enacted, Trump's income tax exemptions could impact tens of millions of taxpayers.

Around 68 million Americans receive Social Security benefits monthly, according to the Social Security Administration. An estimate from Yale University's Budget Lab suggests that in 2023, approximately 4 million workers were in tipped jobs. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs estimated in March 2023 that there were 18.6 million living veterans. The Department of Defense reports that there are 1.3 million active-duty military personnel. Additionally, there are 800,000 sworn law enforcement officers and around 500,000 paid firefighters.

Collectively, these reforms could exempt approximately 93.2 million individuals from at least a portion, if not all, of their income taxes. This represents about 38% of the 244 million Americans eligible to vote in 2024. This figure does not include the many more people who would be exempt from part of their income taxes if Trump carried out his proposed elimination of taxes on overtime pay. The total could also vary depending on the degree of overlap between the taxpayer groups Trump has proposed to provide tax relief.

The Tax Foundation estimates that tax exemptions on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits would reduce federal tax revenue by $2 trillion over the next decade. "Trump's proposed tax exemptions for tips, Social Security benefits, overtime work, and potentially for workers in certain occupations continue a trend of promising narrowly focused tax benefits without a robust underlying policy rationale and without considering how these proposals would affect revenue collections or the complexity of the tax system," Watson commented.

Taking into account Trump's tariff plans and other tax cuts, his overall plan is estimated to reduce federal tax revenue by $3 trillion from 2025 to 2034, according to the Tax Foundation. Analysts view Trump's scheme to move away from income taxes as somewhat of a fantasy. "Spoiler alert: We don't believe tariffs will replace income taxes," Evercore analysts wrote in a June report.

Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment regarding Trump's tax plans. Trump's proposed erosion of the income tax system comes as he also pledges to make permanent his 2017 tax cuts, which are scheduled to expire in 2025.

Even if Trump were to win the November election against Harris, his tax reform would not become a reality without a Republican majority in the House of Representatives, where all tax bills originate. Republicans currently hold the House with a slim margin. Control of the chamber will be determined by the outcomes of a few competitive districts in November.